Viruly Consulting

South African Reserve Bank ( Quarterly)

September 14, 2011
The latest Soouth African Reserve bank bulletin  has provided a gloomy picture of the SA Economy.  Consumer expenditure is slowing and the construction sector is under significant pressure. Numerous government driven prohjects are not seeing the light. As a result it is becoming increasingly probable that the SA Reserve Bank will leave interest rate sunchanged in the short run. The possibility of a decline in interest rates is also becoming a possibility by year end.  Generally these conditions do not bode well for the SA property market and the retail sector in particular.
 

PROPERTY IN A DOUBLE DIGIT VACANCY RATE OFFICE ENVIRONMENT

October 13, 2010

The  vacancy rate is probably the closest that the property market has to a coincident indicator.  The recently published SAPOA vacancy rates suggest that the South African office market remains weak and that rentals will remain under pressure in 2010.

Of the twenty Johannesburg nodes measured by the SAPOA only six nodes showed an improvement in vacancy rates in the past quarter.  These include Bedforview, Constantia Kloof, Houghton, Melrose and Randburg.    But in general the conditions ...


Continue reading...
 

A YOUTHFUL PROPERTY MARKET ON STEROIDS

October 6, 2010

The Dubai property has a seen a decade of phenomenal growth, with the amount of commercial and residential space more than doubling every year.  Easy finance, the availability of land, and a conducive regulatory environment provided the steroids for a property boom. But, things changed in 2009. Approximately half the planned projects have been put on hold and estimates suggest that there is sufficient stock to meet take-up for the next decade.

While this slow down can be blamed on the global ...


Continue reading...
 

Johanneburg Inner City Retail Rentals At R2'000 sqm

September 25, 2010

If you think   that rentals  are high  in the standard South African Shopping centre , consider  retail rentals on the corner of Jeppe Street and Delvers Street in the Johannesburg CBD .

A recent  workgroup  co-ordinated  by  Hannah Le  Roux and sponsored by the Goethe  Institute  considered the dynamics around  certain  buildings in the Johannesburg inner city . What is interesting about these  buildings  is that they are  primarily let to  Ethiopian  retailers – in a sense creating an i...


Continue reading...
 

Does the interest rate cut matter for the South African property market ?

September 9, 2010

It is unlikely that the decision by the South African Reserve bank  to lower the repo rate by 50 basis point will have a significant  impact on the South African commercial property sector. Recent residential property data provided by ABSA and FNB suggest that the rise  in residential values has stalled and that  the sector  could  be  experience a double dip.The  commercial property sector continues to suffer from high vacancy rates, and  property owners are finding it difficult to secure re...

Continue reading...
 

The SA housing market is entering a double dip

September 2, 2010

There are strong indications that the South African housing market is entering a douple dip.  FNB has just released its August  2010 House price index whcih indicates that  the year-on -year growth in housing prices has declined to 7.2% compared to 10.1% in July. The report also makes the important point that  while the nominal increase is weakening , property prices are showing strong real growth - but that reflects a declining inflation rate scenario rather than the strength  of the propert...


Continue reading...
 

Decline in interest rates

September 1, 2010
There are clear indications that  SA interest rates will start to decline. This bodes well for the SA property market in general. In particular it should encourage retail expenditure. We remain of the view that the retail sector will come ouot of recession first, followed by the industrial and and office sectors. 

Francois

Continue reading...
 

Categories